Cover Everything. Every Week. Every Edge.
What We Do
Always Collect is not a tipster. It is a professional NFL prediction engine — calibrated, tracked, and transparent.
The Method
Five rigorous steps. Every game. Every week. No shortcuts, no gut calls.
Every NFL team rated weekly across offense, defense, and home field. Elo and nFelo systems integrated.
The Book builds its own spread for every game. Market divergence reveals where value lives.
Only plays with Expected Value ≥ 0.02 are selected. Everything below is a PASS.
33% fractional Kelly on every play. Bankroll protected. Long-term growth maximised.
Every pick logged against the closing line after games. Positive CLV = proven edge.
The Engine
54.3% ATS across 92 backtested games — inside the 54–57% target range for long-term profitability.
Brier Score 0.228 — below the 0.24 threshold, confirming calibrated probability output.
2026 is the first live season. Every pick tracked publicly — ATS result, CLV, and ROI — every week.
K-factor corrected ÷4.71. All contaminated 2025 data cleared. Clean validation begins September 4, 2026.
Get Access
Five tiers. One engine. Always Collect.
One pick per week from The Book. In your inbox before the lines move.
2 picks with full EV breakdown. The model engine fully visible.
Every pick. Every data point. Built for serious bankrolls only.
Join the room. Follow the model. Free access to The Collect Room on Discord.
Got Questions
Expected Value (EV) is the mathematical edge on a bet. If the model gives a team 60% chance to cover but the market only implies 55%, that gap is positive EV. We only bet when EV ≥ 0.02 (2%). Over hundreds of bets, positive EV produces profit.
The market spread is what Vegas offers (e.g. Chiefs -6.5). The model spread is what our engine calculates the true margin should be (e.g. Chiefs -4.1). That 2.4 point gap is the edge. The bigger the gap, the stronger the bet.
Elo is a power rating system that tracks team strength based on results. nFelo is an NFL-specific version that also factors in margin of victory, home field, rest, and travel. Together they generate our model spreads and win probabilities.
Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that calculates the optimal bet size based on your edge and odds. We use 33% fractional Kelly — conservative enough to survive variance, aggressive enough to grow a bankroll with real edge.
Founding members lock in €19/mo forever — that price never increases. You also get Discord access now, monthly Book Reports through the offseason, and preseason pick teasers in August. Early members are part of building this.
No. Nothing in sports betting is guaranteed. The model went 54.3% ATS in calibration — inside the 54–57% range needed for long-term profitability. Variance happens. We track everything publicly and never hide a losing week.
Season Starts September 2026
Drop your email. The Book Report arrives before Week 1 kicks off.
No spam · Weekly analysis · Unsubscribe anytime