Cover Everything. Every Week. Every Edge.
What We Do
Always Collect is not a tipster. It is a professional NFL prediction engine — calibrated, tracked, and transparent.
The Method
Five rigorous steps. Every game. Every week. No shortcuts, no gut calls.
Every NFL team rated weekly across offense, defense, and home field. Elo and nFelo systems integrated.
The Book builds its own spread for every game. Market divergence reveals where value lives.
Only plays with Expected Value ≥ 0.02 are selected. Everything below is a PASS.
33% fractional Kelly on every play. Bankroll protected. Long-term growth maximised.
Every pick logged against the closing line after games. Positive CLV = proven edge.
The Engine
54.3% ATS across 92 backtested games — inside the 54–57% target range for long-term profitability.
Brier Score 0.228 — below the 0.24 threshold, confirming calibrated probability output.
2026 is the first live season. Every pick tracked publicly — ATS result, CLV, and ROI — every week.
K-factor corrected ÷4.71. All contaminated 2025 data cleared. Clean validation begins September 4, 2026.
Get Access
Four tiers. One engine. Always Collect.
One pick per week from The Book. In your inbox before the lines move.
2 picks with full EV breakdown. The model engine fully visible.
Every pick. Every data point. Built for serious bankrolls only.
Join the room. Follow the model. Free access to The Collect Room on Discord.
Season Starts September 2026
Drop your email. The Book Report arrives before Week 1 kicks off.
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